Looking ahead to 2025, the operating logic of international affairs, the development logic of science and technology, and the stability logic of peace and security will continue to undergo profound changes. The contradiction between war and peace will be more prominent, the struggle between power and interests will be complex and intertwined, and the choice between competition and cooperation will be difficult to resolve. Increased uncertainty and instability will bring more significant problems and risks worthy of attention and resolution to the world economy, international order, social trends, conflict management, and global governance.
Key Points
- Nearly a quarter of respondents believe that armed conflict between states is the primary direct risk in 2025, reflecting escalating global geopolitical tensions and divisions.
- Social risks, especially inequality and social polarization, occupy a significant position in both short-term and long-term risk rankings.
- 64% of experts predict that the global order will exhibit fragmentation caused by competition between middle and large countries, thus putting enormous pressure on multilateralism.
Weak Global Economic Recovery, Persistent Uncertainty
In 2024, although the global economy gradually emerged from its slump, it still faces the predicament of insufficient development momentum and widening growth divergence. In 2025, global economic growth is projected to remain significantly below pre-COVID-19 levels. With the continued influence of factors such as protracted geopolitical conflicts, intensified great power competition, and dramatic technological revolutions, the economic and financial policy games among major powers are expected to intensify, and the uncertainty facing the global economy remains and may even increase.
The global economic recovery will be weak. While the global economy showed some resilience in 2024, growth remained sluggish. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook report released in January 2025, revised its 2025 global economic growth forecast upward to 3.3%, but this is still lower than the historical average of 3.7% from 2000 to 2019. On the one hand, the benefits of past technological innovations have largely been exhausted, and traditional drivers of economic growth are constantly being impacted. Globalized supply chains are becoming increasingly fragmented, and international trade costs are rising, hindering the pace of economic recovery. On the other hand, the tangible benefits of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation have not yet truly materialized. Neither general artificial intelligence nor quantum technology has fully achieved profitability, making it difficult to industrialize and generate profit growth points.
Growth diverges among major economies. According to IMF forecasts, of the eight developed economies—the US, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, the UK, and Canada—only three are projected to achieve economic growth exceeding 2% by 2025. Similarly, of the eight emerging market economies—China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and South Africa—only four are projected to grow at over 4%. Developed economies show a clear trend of "strong US, weak Europe." The US, benefiting from strong consumer demand, a robust labor market, and seizing opportunities presented by artificial intelligence, is experiencing economic growth exceeding its potential growth rate. In contrast, the Eurozone's manufacturing sector and goods exports remain weak, resulting in a weaker-than-expected economic recovery. The growth prospects of the region's leading economies, Germany and France, are worrying, with growth rates projected to be below the Eurozone average. The growth prospects of developing economies are also concerning. Although developing economies experienced their fastest economic growth since the 1970s in the first decade of the 21st century, growth momentum has gradually weakened since the 2008 global financial crisis, and they are projected to face their worst long-term growth prospects in the first 25 years of this century by 2025. The process of developing economies catching up with the income levels of developed economies is slowing, and the gap between rich and poor is widening.
Two Conflicts Escalate and Delay, with Various Forces Engaged in a Difficult Struggle
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has dragged on and escalated amidst the debate over "war versus peace." With Trump's return to the White House, the variables in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have significantly increased.
- Peace Talks Are Difficult, as the Two Sides Have Vastly Different Positions.
Russia and Ukraine still have significant differences on many issues, making it difficult to "sit down at the negotiating table." Russia advocates negotiating based on a new territorial reality and ensuring that Ukraine does not join NATO, maintaining a neutral, non-nuclear, and non-aligned status. Ukraine, on the other hand, insists on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Crimea and Donbas, and hopes to obtain security guarantees from the West, while also holding Russia accountable for the war. Against this backdrop, Trump has changed his tune, stating that he hopes to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict within six months.
- Before a Comprehensive Ceasefire, the Conflict Remains at Risk of Escalation.
Both Russia and Ukraine are well aware that "benefits not gained on the battlefield are unlikely to be obtained at the negotiating table." Although ceasefire negotiations have been put on the agenda, both Russia and Ukraine seem unwilling to abandon the idea of escalating the conflict to gain more bargaining chips for themselves. As a result, the situation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield is likely to escalate further.
- A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is merely a superficial solution and cannot resolve the deep-seated contradictions.
The essence of the Russia-Ukraine issue involves the complex and enormous issue of reshaping the European security architecture. Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Sweden and Finland joined NATO, altering the European security landscape and significantly increasing Russia's insecurity, further deepening its contradictions with Europe. Judging from the currently revealed "Trump plan," the US's approach to resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to be to pressure Ukraine to achieve an on-site ceasefire. The Russia-Ukraine conflict may revert to the "Minsk model," becoming a "frozen conflict." This approach does not resolve the underlying contradictions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the foreseeable future, the rivalry between Europe and Russia will continue.
The next decade is crucial; global leaders must address complex and interconnected risks and resolve the limitations of existing governance structures. To prevent a vicious cycle of instability, to rebuild trust and enhance resilience, and to create a sustainable and inclusive future for all, countries should prioritize dialogue, strengthen international connections, and foster a favorable environment for renewed cooperation.